TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129654
Played Sep 16Finished
David Mutl
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911811––––
Josef Pelikan
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Pelikan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Josef Pelikan below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Josef Pelikan at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 2–2 Josef Pelikan Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pelikan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1129 vs Pelikan 1244
Pelikan
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 60% vs Pelikan 100%
Pelikan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 50% vs Pelikan 80%
Pelikan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -2 · Pelikan +5
Pelikan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pelikan) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelikan form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 2.10 / Pelikan 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Pelikan)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129654
Mutl2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 33 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Pelikan1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 43 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMutl2wins
AwayPelikan2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl2Pelikan2n = 4split evenly
S2Mutl2Pelikan2n = 4split evenly
S3Mutl2Pelikan2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMutlPelikanM − PBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.539.8−2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlPelikanBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 135 vs 146 / 29648.2%49.3%65 / 135 vs 146 / 296Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.035.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelikanMutl 2.10/Pelikan 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Pelikan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pelikan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 30 · 03:00D. Mutl4161211123J. Pelikan4011109101
LAug 30 · 01:30D. Mutl4811891372J. Pelikan539111111113
WJul 14 · 22:30D. Mutl401113163J. Pelikan33811140
LJul 13 · 01:30D. Mutl216870J. Pelikan331111113
D. Mutl10
LSep 16 · 24:00S. Mazanek1.301111113D. Mutl3.407650LSep 15 · 22:30M. Syroha2.00119119113D. Mutl1.7381191192WSep 14 · 13:30J. Cernik2.259460D. Mutl1.571111113WSep 14 · 12:30L. Madle1.73581151D. Mutl2.0011115113WSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191LSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik2.10551111113D. Mutl1.6711119772WSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.449790D. Mutl2.631111113LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113
J. Pelikan10
WSep 15 · 23:30J. Pelikan1.22611711113M. Syroha4.0011311772WSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102WSep 11 · 21:29J. Pelikan1.4413511113J. Hyrsl2.631111891WSep 11 · 20:00J. Pelikan1.80127114113V. Stach1.91101161112WSep 11 · 19:30J. Hyrsl2.105570J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 11 · 18:00J. Pelikan1.501111113J. Martinek2.508630WSep 3 · 21:00J. Pelikan1.67411211113M. Lubas2.1011811452LSep 3 · 20:00J. Grohsgott2.001111113J. Pelikan1.732880WSep 3 · 19:00M. Lubas2.101011111282J. Pelikan1.67124314113LSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113
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