TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126007
Played Sep 14Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511811115511––
David Mutl
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Madle above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 67 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ludek Madle at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 2–3 David Mutl Ludek Madle has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Madle
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1184 vs Mutl 1133
Madle
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 20% vs Mutl 60%
Mutl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 20% vs Mutl 40%
Mutl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle -3 · Mutl +1
Madle
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Madle)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.73 / Mutl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Madle)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126007
Madle1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 61 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Mutl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMadle2wins
AwayMutl3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMutl leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle66.7%2 of 3
AwayMutln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle3Mutl2n = 5Madle took 3 of 5
S2Madle3Mutl2n = 5Madle took 3 of 5
S3Madle1Mutl4n = 5Mutl took 4 of 5
S4Madle1Mutl2n = 3Mutl took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMadleMutlMadle − MutlBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.040.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 543 vs 63 / 13147.9%48.1%260 / 543 vs 63 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.73/Mutl 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 3 · 22:30L. Madle46111174133D. Mutl50981111112
LJul 10 · 02:00L. Madle331171051D. Mutl4391112113
LMay 27 · 13:30L. Madle227780D. Mutl331111113
LMay 27 · 12:00L. Madle50611121292D. Mutl501141410113
WMay 18 · 06:30L. Madle341112113D. Mutl2471070
L. Madle10
LSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle1.50981131J. Cernik2.5011118113LSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 9 · 09:05L. Madle1.83911371L. Forman1.8311811113WSep 9 · 08:30M. Regner1.3368121182L. Madle3.251111109113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Madle1.618880J. Grohsgott2.201111113WSep 9 · 06:30L. Forman2.0088111172L. Madle1.73111197113LSep 8 · 12:59J. Svec1.573111411113L. Madle2.2511316892LSep 8 · 12:30L. Madle2.257890J. Svec1.571111113LSep 8 · 11:00L. Madle3.506119101P. Sudek1.2811511123
D. Mutl10
WSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191LSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik2.10551111113D. Mutl1.6711119772WSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.449790D. Mutl2.631111113LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113LSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980
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