TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125566
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511511119117117
David Mutl
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held David Mutl at 65.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 4–7 David Mutl Jaromir Cernik has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Mutl beat Cernik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:14What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mutl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Mutl
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1088 vs Mutl 1132
Mutl
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 40% vs Mutl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 60% vs Mutl 40%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -3 · Mutl +1
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mutl) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.10 / Mutl 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Mutl)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125566
Cernik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 46 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Mutl1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 26 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik3wins
AwayMutl7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMutl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik40%2 of 5
AwayMutl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik5Mutl5n = 10split evenly
S2Cernik2Mutl8n = 10Mutl took 8 of 10
S3Cernik3Mutl7n = 10Mutl took 7 of 10
S4Cernik3Mutl3n = 6split evenly
S5Cernik2Mutl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikMutlC − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.739.1−7.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 796 vs 62 / 13045.6%47.7%363 / 796 vs 62 / 130Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlCernik 2.10/Mutl 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik43551111113D. Mutl4511119772
LSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik217950D. Mutl331111113
WSep 14 · 06:30J. Cernik331111113D. Mutl236890
LAug 22 · 03:00J. Cernik33116791D. Mutl4071111113
LAug 22 · 01:00J. Cernik30811651D. Mutl3911611113
LJul 2 · 23:30J. Cernik172780D. Mutl331111113
LMay 20 · 24:30J. Cernik193790D. Mutl331111113
LMay 18 · 10:30J. Cernik3811711272D. Mutl50811911113
LMay 18 · 08:59J. Cernik3311901122D. Mutl49911117113
WMay 18 · 08:00J. Cernik50136911113D. Mutl46111111942
J. Cernik10
WSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle1.50981131J. Cernik2.5011118113LSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.401411113J. Cernik2.7512660LSep 14 · 07:30J. Cernik1.808880J. Srba1.911111113WSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113WSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113
D. Mutl10
WSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191WSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.449790D. Mutl2.631111113LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113LSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151
Upcoming Matches
J. Cernik
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D. Mutl
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