TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104107
Played Sep 10Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117119116––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.4%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 14–10 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Cernik
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1094 vs Novotny 1173
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 60% vs Novotny 40%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Novotny 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +2 · Novotny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.10 / Novotny 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Novotny)-0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104107
Cernik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog28% won 44 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Novotny1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik66.7%4 of 6
AwayNovotny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik6Novotny4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Cernik6Novotny4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S3Cernik3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Cernik2Novotny4n = 6Novotny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikNovotnyC − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.036.4−3.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 804 vs 181 / 36245.7%50%367 / 804 vs 181 / 362Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyCernik 2.10/Novotny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:00J. Cernik—115111342L. Novotny—911915113
LAug 28 · 10:30J. Cernik—711871L. Novotny—11911113
LAug 28 · 06:30J. Cernik—114691L. Novotny—41111113
WAug 15 · 08:00J. Cernik—15119113L. Novotny—1361191
LJun 30 · 10:30J. Cernik—3380L. Novotny—1111113
LJun 30 · 06:00J. Cernik—91280L. Novotny—1114113
LJun 13 · 08:00J. Cernik—911811L. Novotny—11911113
WMay 26 · 13:30J. Cernik—11123113L. Novotny—6101161
WMay 26 · 12:00J. Cernik—1113113L. Novotny—61160
WMay 26 · 07:00J. Cernik—1111113L. Novotny—9690
J. Cernik10
WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113
L. Novotny10
LSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113WSep 10 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.83111171262L. Novotny1.83771114113LSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113WSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 8 · 09:00L. Novotny1.73111199102A. Hejduk2.00981111123LSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272WSep 8 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.80121171062L. Novotny1.911091112113LSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113
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