TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092479
Played Sep 8Finished
Alexander Hejduk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101197111012611
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Hejduk above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Hejduk 3–4 Ladislav Novotny Alexander Hejduk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hejduk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hejduk 1067 vs Novotny 1201
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hejduk 20% vs Novotny 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hejduk 40% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hejduk +1 · Novotny -3
Novotny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hejduk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHejduk 1.80 / Novotny 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hejduk)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092479
Hejduk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 42 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Novotny1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 38 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back29% 11 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHejduk3wins
AwayNovotny4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderNovotny leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHejduk60%3 of 5
AwayNovotnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hejduk5Novotny2n = 7Hejduk took 5 of 7
S2Hejduk5Novotny2n = 7Hejduk took 5 of 7
S3Hejduk1Novotny6n = 7Novotny took 6 of 7
S4Hejduk0Novotny5n = 5Novotny took 5 of 5
S5Hejduk2Novotny1n = 3Hejduk took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricHejdukNovotnyH − NBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match37.739.6−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHejdukNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 425 vs 180 / 35945.4%50.1%193 / 425 vs 180 / 359Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HejdukHejduk 1.80/Novotny 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hejduk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 8 · 07:00A. Hejduk—121171062L. Novotny—1091112113
WJan 5 · 07:00A. Hejduk—111138113L. Novotny—36111192
LDec 28 · 07:00A. Hejduk—114891L. Novotny—41111113
WDec 27 · 07:00A. Hejduk—1111511113L. Novotny—78111372
LDec 23 · 08:30A. Hejduk—8960L. Novotny—1111113
WDec 21 · 10:30A. Hejduk—1311113L. Novotny—11390
LDec 21 · 07:30A. Hejduk—6136101L. Novotny—111111123
A. Hejduk10
WSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113LSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101LSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030LSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113LSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880WSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830WSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113
L. Novotny10
LSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272LSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151
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