TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091757
Played Sep 8Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1198119111412117
Ladislav Novotny
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 103 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 65.3%
103 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 0–2 Ladislav Novotny Miroslav Vaclavik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:08What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1231 vs Novotny 1201
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 40% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 50% vs Novotny 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik +1 · Novotny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.50 / Novotny 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091757
Vaclavik1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 37 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Novotny2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 38 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back29% 11 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVaclavik0wins
AwayNovotny2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderNovotny leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVaclavikNovotnyV − NBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match37.544.5−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 185 vs 180 / 36053%50%98 / 185 vs 180 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.50/Novotny 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LDec 26 · 10:00M. Vaclavik—831191L. Novotny—11117113
LDec 26 · 09:00M. Vaclavik—96111172L. Novotny—111188113
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113LSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113WSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113
L. Novotny10
WSep 8 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.80121171062L. Novotny1.911091112113LSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151
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