TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091758
Played Sep 8Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711611––––
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 51 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 3–3 Miroslav Vaclavik Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1179 vs Vaclavik 1241
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 60% vs Vaclavik 20%
Smesny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 50% vs Vaclavik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +2 · Vaclavik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.38 / Vaclavik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091758
Smesny2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Vaclavik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 37 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSmesny3wins
AwayVaclavik3wins
Level at 3–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVaclavik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny2Vaclavik4n = 6Vaclavik took 4 of 6
S2Smesny4Vaclavik2n = 6Smesny took 4 of 6
S3Smesny3Vaclavik3n = 6split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricSmesnyVaclavikS − VBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match30.231.2−1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 368 vs 99 / 18652.2%53.2%192 / 368 vs 99 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikSmesny 2.38/Vaclavik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny—5760M. Vaclavik—1111113
WJul 19 · 10:00M. Smesny—1311133M. Vaclavik—119110
LJun 16 · 11:30M. Smesny—7114121M. Vaclavik—11711143
LMay 20 · 24:00M. Smesny—8360M. Vaclavik—1111113
WJan 3 · 16:00M. Smesny—1111113M. Vaclavik—8590
WOct 12 · 12:30M. Smesny—91111113M. Vaclavik—114551
M. Smesny10
WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272LSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113WSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113
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