TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087535
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711711116118115
David Mutl
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 88 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 56.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 6–5 David Mutl David Mutl has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:15What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1228 vs Mutl 1155
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Mutl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 40% vs Mutl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik -2 · Mutl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.61 / Mutl 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087535
Vaclavik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 36 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Mutl2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclavik5wins
AwayMutl5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik57.1%4 of 7
AwayMutl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik7Mutl3n = 10Vaclavik took 7 of 10
S2Vaclavik6Mutl4n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S3Vaclavik5Mutl5n = 10split evenly
S4Vaclavik4Mutl3n = 7Vaclavik took 4 of 7
S5Vaclavik1Mutl4n = 5Mutl took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclavikMutlV − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.738.0+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 181 vs 60 / 12353%48.8%96 / 181 vs 60 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.61/Mutl 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik—9890D. Mutl—1111113
WAug 30 · 23:30M. Vaclavik—1312113D. Mutl—111090
LJul 10 · 01:00M. Vaclavik—61111582D. Mutl—116911113
WJun 16 · 13:30M. Vaclavik—1111113D. Mutl—8570
WJun 16 · 12:00M. Vaclavik—111111113D. Mutl—136891
LJun 3 · 03:03M. Vaclavik—11551182D. Mutl—611115113
WJun 3 · 01:30M. Vaclavik—111136113D. Mutl—86111192
WMay 20 · 03:30M. Vaclavik—11136113D. Mutl—9111191
LMay 20 · 01:30M. Vaclavik—11741162D. Mutl—811113113
LMay 9 · 03:29M. Vaclavik—117116102D. Mutl—311311123
M. Vaclavik10
LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113
D. Mutl10
LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.