TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086912
Played Sep 7Finished
David Mutl
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119118––––
Milan Regner
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Milan Regner below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Milan Regner at 62.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 2–2 Milan Regner Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1135 vs Regner 1223
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 40% vs Regner 80%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 40% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -1 · Regner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 3.25 / Regner 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Regner)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086912
Mutl3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Regner1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 80 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMutl2wins
AwayRegner2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl2Regner2n = 4split evenly
S2Mutl1Regner3n = 4Regner took 3 of 4
S3Mutl2Regner2n = 4split evenly
S4Mutl2Regner1n = 3Mutl took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMutlRegnerM − RBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.837.0−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 121 vs 242 / 52248.8%46.4%59 / 121 vs 242 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerMutl 3.25/Regner 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.7%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl—61180M. Regner—1113113
WSep 2 · 11:00D. Mutl—11311113M. Regner—811681
WAug 29 · 20:58D. Mutl—11711123M. Regner—8114101
LAug 29 · 19:00D. Mutl—2156101M. Regner—111311123
D. Mutl10
LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780
M. Regner10
WSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113WSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451LSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113WSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113LAug 30 · 16:58M. Barta2.75114611113M. Regner1.4051111962
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.