TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091490
Played Sep 7Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117411115––
David Mutl
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:06 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 56.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 3–0 David Mutl David Mutl has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Vrabec beat Mutl 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (59%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1178 vs Mutl 1146
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 80% vs Mutl 60%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 70% vs Mutl 40%
Vrabec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec +1 · Mutl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 1.58 / Mutl 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vrabec)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091490
Vrabec1.58
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 77 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 53 of 60
Mutl2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVrabec3wins
AwayMutl0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderVrabec leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec2Mutl1n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
S2Vrabec1Mutl2n = 3Mutl took 2 of 3
S3Vrabec3Mutl0n = 3Vrabec took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVrabecMutlV − MBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.335.0+9.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 349 vs 59 / 12050.7%49.2%177 / 349 vs 59 / 120Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecVrabec 1.58/Mutl 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.7%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Vrabec—1111113D. Mutl—0460
WJun 16 · 09:30M. Vrabec—1191111113D. Mutl—13115882
WJun 16 · 06:30M. Vrabec—139113113D. Mutl—111181192
M. Vrabec10
WSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113
Upcoming Matches
M. Vrabec
Nothing scheduled
D. Mutl
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.