TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092733
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911511––––
Milan Regner
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Milan Regner below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Milan Regner at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 0–3 Milan Regner Miroslav Vaclavik has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Regner beat Vaclavik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Regner
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1222 vs Regner 1222
Regner
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 50% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik +1 · Regner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 2.75 / Regner 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Regner)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092733
Vaclavik2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 23 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Regner1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 80 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVaclavik0wins
AwayRegner3wins
Regner leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayRegner100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik0Regner3n = 3Regner took 3 of 3
S2Vaclavik1Regner2n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
S3Vaclavik0Regner3n = 3Regner took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricVaclavikRegnerV − RBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match20.736.7−16.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 183 vs 244 / 52653%46.4%97 / 183 vs 244 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerVaclavik 2.75/Regner 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik—6950M. Regner—1111113
LSep 7 · 11:30M. Vaclavik—5540M. Regner—1111113
LSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik—1311221M. Regner—15711113
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113
M. Regner10
LSep 7 · 12:30M. Lubas1.731111113M. Regner2.004440WSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113WSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451LSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113
Upcoming Matches
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