TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104690
Played Sep 10Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115811711––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:41 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 62.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 12–34 Jaromir Cernik Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 12 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:41What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-34 in 46
Cernik
Correct
gap of 22 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1041 vs Cernik 1091
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 0% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 10% vs Cernik 40%
Cernik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -5 · Cernik -1
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 3.40 / Cernik 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Cernik)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104690
Strnad3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Cernik1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite60% won 61 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad2wins
AwayCernik8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad28.6%2 of 7
AwayCernik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad7Cernik3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S2Strnad3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S3Strnad1Cernik9n = 10Cernik took 9 of 10
S4Strnad2Cernik6n = 8Cernik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadCernikS − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.240.9−7.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 357 vs 368 / 80741.2%45.6%147 / 357 vs 368 / 807Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikStrnad 3.40/Cernik 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad—161013972J. Cernik—14121111113
LSep 1 · 09:03J. Strnad—113891J. Cernik—81111113
LSep 1 · 08:00J. Strnad—8380J. Cernik—1111113
WAug 28 · 12:00J. Strnad—11112113J. Cernik—961171
LJul 22 · 10:30J. Strnad—911631J. Cernik—11611113
LJun 30 · 13:00J. Strnad—112991J. Cernik—81111113
LJun 30 · 12:30J. Strnad—1461041J. Cernik—121112113
LJun 9 · 12:00J. Strnad—113571J. Cernik—81111113
LMay 7 · 10:30J. Strnad—12490J. Cernik—1411113
WApr 16 · 07:30J. Strnad—11119163J. Cernik—6911141
J. Strnad10
WSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151
J. Cernik10
LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113
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