TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104105
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Srba
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11613111012111811
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srba above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 61.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srba 0–8 Jaromir Cernik Jan Srba has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:01What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Cernik
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Srba 1245 vs Cernik 1084
Srba
Wrong
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srba 80% vs Cernik 20%
Srba
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srba 60% vs Cernik 30%
Srba
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Srba +2 · Cernik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrba 2.10 / Cernik 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Cernik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104105
Srba2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog73% won 8 of 11
Cernik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 61 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSrba0wins
AwayCernik8wins
4 of 8 to a deciderCernik leads 8–0, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSrba0%0 of 5
AwayCernik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Srba5Cernik3n = 8Srba took 5 of 8
S2Srba4Cernik4n = 8split evenly
S3Srba1Cernik7n = 8Cernik took 7 of 8
S4Srba1Cernik6n = 7Cernik took 6 of 7
S5Srba0Cernik4n = 4Cernik took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSrbaCernikS − CBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.043.1−7.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrbaCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 62 vs 366 / 80356.5%45.6%35 / 62 vs 366 / 803Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikSrba 2.10/Cernik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba—111310182J. Cernik—6111211113
LApr 16 · 10:30J. Srba—61181152J. Cernik—115117113
LDec 28 · 11:30J. Srba—11117992J. Cernik—251111113
LSep 18 · 12:30J. Srba—10580J. Cernik—1211113
LJun 12 · 13:30J. Srba—531121J. Cernik—11116113
LJun 12 · 10:30J. Srba—11117822J. Cernik—891111113
LMay 29 · 13:30J. Srba—12511101J. Cernik—101113123
LMay 29 · 11:30J. Srba—1169101J. Cernik—61111123
J. Srba10
WSep 10 · 06:00J. Srba1.50911119113A. Hejduk2.5011551192WSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101LSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WJun 8 · 08:58J. Vrba1.8349110J. Srba1.831111133LJun 8 · 08:30J. Srba1.73113671J. Vrba2.0061111113LJun 8 · 07:00J. Srba1.733750A. Hejduk2.001111113LJun 8 · 06:00L. Madle1.911114113J. Srba1.8091220WMay 25 · 09:30J. Srba1.401111113M. Vrabec2.753450
J. Cernik10
WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860
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