TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103529
Played Sep 10Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4117111113––––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
4117111113––––
H2H Jaromir Cernik 15–11 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1091 vs Novotny 1147
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 20% vs Novotny 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Novotny 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -1 · Novotny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.91 / Novotny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novotny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103529
Cernik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 44 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Novotny1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik3wins
AwayNovotny7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik50%2 of 4
AwayNovotny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Cernik5Novotny5n = 10split evenly
S3Cernik2Novotny8n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S4Cernik3Novotny4n = 7Novotny took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikNovotnyC − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.338.5−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 807 vs 182 / 36645.6%49.7%368 / 807 vs 182 / 366Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyCernik 1.91/Novotny 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik—61111113L. Novotny—117961
LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik—47110L. Novotny—1111133
LSep 1 · 06:00J. Cernik—115111342L. Novotny—911915113
LAug 28 · 10:30J. Cernik—711871L. Novotny—11911113
LAug 28 · 06:30J. Cernik—114691L. Novotny—41111113
WAug 15 · 08:00J. Cernik—15119113L. Novotny—1361191
LJun 30 · 10:30J. Cernik—3380L. Novotny—1111113
LJun 30 · 06:00J. Cernik—91280L. Novotny—1114113
LJun 13 · 08:00J. Cernik—911811L. Novotny—11911113
WMay 26 · 13:30J. Cernik—11123113L. Novotny—6101161
J. Cernik10
WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113
L. Novotny10
LSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961LSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113WSep 10 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.83111171262L. Novotny1.83771114113LSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113LSep 8 · 09:00L. Novotny1.73111199102A. Hejduk2.00981111123LSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272WSep 8 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.80121171062L. Novotny1.911091112113LSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113
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