TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104687
Played Sep 10Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118117––––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:41 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Milan Smesny at 70.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 14–5 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-5 in 19
Smesny
Correct
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1215 vs Novotny 1147
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 80% vs Novotny 20%
Smesny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 70% vs Novotny 30%
Smesny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +4 · Novotny -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.53 / Novotny 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Smesny)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104687
Smesny1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 49 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Novotny2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 37 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny7wins
AwayNovotny3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny100%4 of 4
AwayNovotny50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Smesny6Novotny4n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S3Smesny4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Smesny6Novotny2n = 8Smesny took 6 of 8
S5Smesny4Novotny1n = 5Smesny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyNovotnyS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.9+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 372 vs 182 / 36652.7%49.7%196 / 372 vs 182 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.53/Novotny 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:30M. Smesny—111175113L. Novotny—76111162
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny—91113113L. Novotny—1181191
WSep 6 · 06:00M. Smesny—913911113L. Novotny—111111982
LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny—10560L. Novotny—1211113
WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny—11126113L. Novotny—7101191
WSep 1 · 08:30M. Smesny—561111113L. Novotny—11119772
WAug 25 · 11:30M. Smesny—115712113L. Novotny—911111092
LJun 23 · 07:00M. Smesny—71151192L. Novotny—114115113
LMay 26 · 11:00M. Smesny—761181L. Novotny—11118113
WMay 11 · 12:00M. Smesny—1112113L. Novotny—61040
M. Smesny10
WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113WSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.57741171M. Smesny2.2511117113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113
L. Novotny10
LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961LSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113WSep 10 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.83111171262L. Novotny1.83771114113LSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113WSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 8 · 09:00L. Novotny1.73111199102A. Hejduk2.00981111123LSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny
L. Novotny
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