TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13097871
Played Sep 8Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411511117114911
Milan Smesny
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 84 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 66.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 3–3 Milan Smesny Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vaclavik beat Smesny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:08What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vaclavik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1241 vs Smesny 1187
Vaclavik
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Smesny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 60% vs Smesny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik +2 · Smesny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Vaclavik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.40 / Smesny 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13097871
Vaclavik1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 37 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Smesny2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVaclavik3wins
AwaySmesny3wins
Level at 3–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik75%3 of 4
AwaySmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik4Smesny2n = 6Vaclavik took 4 of 6
S2Vaclavik2Smesny4n = 6Smesny took 4 of 6
S3Vaclavik3Smesny3n = 6split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricVaclavikSmesnyV − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match31.230.2+1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 186 vs 193 / 36953.2%52.3%99 / 186 vs 193 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.40/Smesny 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 8 · 07:30M. Vaclavik—1111113M. Smesny—5760
LJul 19 · 10:00M. Vaclavik—119110M. Smesny—1311133
WJun 16 · 11:30M. Vaclavik—11711143M. Smesny—7114121
WMay 20 · 24:00M. Vaclavik—1111113M. Smesny—8360
LJan 3 · 16:00M. Vaclavik—8590M. Smesny—1111113
LOct 12 · 12:30M. Vaclavik—114551M. Smesny—91111113
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272WSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113LSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113WSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153
M. Smesny10
WSep 8 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.57741171M. Smesny2.2511117113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113
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