Alexander Hejduk vs Milan Smesny 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13092478

Played Sep 8Finished

Alexander Hejduk

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

711411117711––

Milan Smesny

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:07 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Alexander Hejduk to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAlexander Hejduk above · Milan Smesny below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 7-11

Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Alexander Hejduk at 55.8%

69 points played in total.

H2H Alexander Hejduk 8–4 Milan Smesny Milan Smesny has won 4 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:07

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Hejduk

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

8-4 in 12

Hejduk

Wrong

gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Hejduk 1067 vs Smesny 1179

Smesny

Correct

both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Hejduk 20% vs Smesny 40%

Smesny

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Hejduk 30% vs Smesny 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Hejduk -1 · Smesny -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hejduk)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hejduk form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHejduk 1.57 / Smesny 2.25

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Smesny)+2.8pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13092478

Hejduk1.57

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite54% won 42 of 78

Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26

Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38

Smesny2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog29% won 15 of 51

Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeHejduk7wins

AwaySmesny3wins

4 of 10 to a deciderHejduk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeHejduk100%5 of 5

AwaySmesny60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Hejduk5Smesny5n = 10split evenly

S2Hejduk6Smesny4n = 10Hejduk took 6 of 10

S3Hejduk5Smesny5n = 10split evenly

S4Hejduk3Smesny5n = 8Smesny took 5 of 8

S5Hejduk4Smesny0n = 4Hejduk took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricHejdukSmesnyH − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.5+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHejdukSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 425 vs 192 / 36845.4%52.2%193 / 425 vs 192 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Hejduk

Hejduk 1.57/Smesny 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.1%

Hejduk · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Smesny won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WMay 3 · 08:30A. Hejduk—10111111113M. Smesny—12135732

LMar 5 · 10:30A. Hejduk—641181M. Smesny—11118113

WMar 5 · 07:00A. Hejduk—1112510113M. Smesny—910111292

WJan 15 · 10:00A. Hejduk—1115119113M. Smesny—41761162

WJan 15 · 09:30A. Hejduk—51112113M. Smesny—1181061

WJan 14 · 09:59A. Hejduk—1211113M. Smesny—10960

LJan 14 · 09:30A. Hejduk—5840M. Smesny—1111113

WJan 5 · 09:30A. Hejduk—11118113M. Smesny—991151

LDec 28 · 09:30A. Hejduk—9113121M. Smesny—11711143

WJul 19 · 08:30A. Hejduk—111188113M. Smesny—29111162

A. Hejduk10

WSep 8 · 09:00L. Novotny1.73111199102A. Hejduk2.00981111123 LSep 8 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.80121171062L. Novotny1.911091112113 WSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113 LSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101 LSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371 LSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113 LSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171 WSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030 LSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113 LSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880

M. Smesny10

WSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113 LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113 WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113 WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191 LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113 LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113 WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113 LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113 WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123 LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113

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