TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104092
Played Sep 10Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711118113911118
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Milan Smesny at 56.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 19–26 Jaromir Cernik Milan Smesny has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-26 in 45
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1200 vs Cernik 1094
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 80% vs Cernik 60%
Smesny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 60% vs Cernik 40%
Smesny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +2 · Cernik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.83 / Cernik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smesny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104092
Smesny1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Cernik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny3wins
AwayCernik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny50%2 of 4
AwayCernik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S3Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Smesny1Cernik4n = 5Cernik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyCernikS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.735.1−4.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 370 vs 367 / 80452.4%45.7%194 / 370 vs 367 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.83/Cernik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny—1111113J. Cernik—8990
LJul 22 · 06:30M. Smesny—54130J. Cernik—1111153
LJul 11 · 08:59M. Smesny—813891J. Cernik—111111113
LJul 11 · 06:30M. Smesny—4970J. Cernik—1111113
WJun 9 · 13:30M. Smesny—1111113J. Cernik—2770
LJun 9 · 10:30M. Smesny—112114102J. Cernik—511311123
LMay 26 · 10:00M. Smesny—5560J. Cernik—1111113
LMay 20 · 02:00M. Smesny—1149101J. Cernik—41111123
WMay 18 · 13:00M. Smesny—511611113J. Cernik—11911932
LMay 18 · 11:30M. Smesny—471171J. Cernik—11116113
M. Smesny10
WSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113WSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.57741171M. Smesny2.2511117113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113
J. Cernik10
WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny
J. Cernik
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