TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13109826
Played Sep 10Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116511511118611
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 20–26 Jaromir Cernik Milan Smesny has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Smesny beat Cernik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:04What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smesny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Cernik
Correct
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1227 vs Cernik 1101
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 100% vs Cernik 80%
Smesny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 70% vs Cernik 50%
Smesny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +5 · Cernik +1
Smesny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.80 / Cernik 1.90
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Smesny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13109826
Smesny1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 49 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Cernik1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 44 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny4wins
AwayCernik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny50%2 of 4
AwayCernik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Smesny5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Smesny1Cernik4n = 5Cernik took 4 of 5
S5Smesny2Cernik1n = 3Smesny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyCernikS − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.735.3−2.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 373 vs 369 / 80852.8%45.7%197 / 373 vs 369 / 808Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.80/Cernik 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny—711119113J. Cernik—11831182
WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny—1111113J. Cernik—8990
LJul 22 · 06:30M. Smesny—54130J. Cernik—1111153
LJul 11 · 08:59M. Smesny—813891J. Cernik—111111113
LJul 11 · 06:30M. Smesny—4970J. Cernik—1111113
WJun 9 · 13:30M. Smesny—1111113J. Cernik—2770
LJun 9 · 10:30M. Smesny—112114102J. Cernik—511311123
LMay 26 · 10:00M. Smesny—5560J. Cernik—1111113
LMay 20 · 02:00M. Smesny—1149101J. Cernik—41111123
WMay 18 · 13:00M. Smesny—511611113J. Cernik—11911932
M. Smesny10
WSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113WSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.57741171M. Smesny2.2511117113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113
J. Cernik10
WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113
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