TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128428
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911511––––
David Mutl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11
54 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 3–6 David Mutl Jaromir Cernik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cernik beat Mutl 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mutl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.83 / Mutl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mutl)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128428
Cernik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Mutl1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeCernik3wins
AwayMutl6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMutl leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik50%3 of 6
AwayMutl100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik6Mutl3n = 9Cernik took 6 of 9
S2Cernik3Mutl6n = 9Mutl took 6 of 9
S3Cernik2Mutl7n = 9Mutl took 7 of 9
S4Cernik2Mutl4n = 6Mutl took 4 of 6
S5Cernik2Mutl2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricCernikMutlC − MBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match33.139.4−6.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 796 vs 61 / 12845.5%47.7%362 / 796 vs 61 / 128Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlCernik 1.83/Mutl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 14 · 06:30J. Cernik331111113D. Mutl236890
LAug 22 · 03:00J. Cernik33116791D. Mutl4071111113
LAug 22 · 01:00J. Cernik30811651D. Mutl3911611113
LJul 2 · 23:30J. Cernik172780D. Mutl331111113
LMay 20 · 24:30J. Cernik193790D. Mutl331111113
LMay 18 · 10:30J. Cernik3811711272D. Mutl50811911113
LMay 18 · 08:59J. Cernik3311901122D. Mutl49911117113
WMay 18 · 08:00J. Cernik50136911113D. Mutl46111111942
WMar 29 · 02:30J. Cernik45111247113D. Mutl42810111122
J. Cernik10
LSep 14 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.401411113J. Cernik2.7512660LSep 14 · 07:30J. Cernik1.808880J. Srba1.911111113WSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113WSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060
D. Mutl10
LSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.449790D. Mutl2.631111113LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113LSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113
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