TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125600
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811811––––
Jan Srba
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Jan Srba below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 8–0 Jan Srba Jan Srba has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1124 vs Srba 1273
Srba
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 80% vs Srba 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 60% vs Srba 80%
Srba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +3 · Srba +2
Cernik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Srba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.80 / Srba 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cernik)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125600
Cernik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 61 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it81% 43 of 53
Srba1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog60% won 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeCernik8wins
AwaySrba0wins
4 of 8 to a deciderCernik leads 8–0, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik100%3 of 3
AwaySrba0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik3Srba5n = 8Srba took 5 of 8
S2Cernik4Srba4n = 8split evenly
S3Cernik7Srba1n = 8Cernik took 7 of 8
S4Cernik6Srba1n = 7Cernik took 6 of 7
S5Cernik4Srba0n = 4Cernik took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricCernikSrbaC − SBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match43.136.0+7.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikSrbaBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 796 vs 34 / 6145.7%55.7%364 / 796 vs 34 / 61Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.80/Srba 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Srba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 10 · 08:00J. Cernik516111211113J. Srba43111310182
WApr 16 · 10:30J. Cernik45115117113J. Srba4161181152
WDec 28 · 11:30J. Cernik40251111113J. Srba4711117992
WSep 18 · 12:30J. Cernik341211113J. Srba2310580
WJun 12 · 13:30J. Cernik3911116113J. Srba21531121
WJun 12 · 10:30J. Cernik50891111113J. Srba3911117822
WMay 29 · 13:30J. Cernik46101113123J. Srba3812511101
WMay 29 · 11:30J. Cernik4061111123J. Srba361169101
J. Cernik10
WSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113WSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030
J. Srba10
WSep 14 · 06:00J. Srba1.2081111113M. Vrabec4.33118981WSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113WSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113WSep 10 · 06:00J. Srba1.50911119113A. Hejduk2.5011551192WSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101LSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WJun 8 · 08:58J. Vrba1.8349110J. Srba1.831111133
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