TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125766
Played Sep 14Finished
David Mutl
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held David Mutl at 65.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 6–3 Jaromir Cernik Jaromir Cernik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:22What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mutl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Mutl
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1114 vs Cernik 1124
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 20% vs Cernik 80%
Cernik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 40% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -3 · Cernik +2
Mutl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Mutl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 1.44 / Cernik 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Mutl)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125766
Mutl1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 26 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Cernik2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 46 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMutl6wins
AwayCernik3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMutl leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutl100%3 of 3
AwayCernik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl3Cernik6n = 9Cernik took 6 of 9
S2Mutl6Cernik3n = 9Mutl took 6 of 9
S3Mutl7Cernik2n = 9Mutl took 7 of 9
S4Mutl4Cernik2n = 6Mutl took 4 of 6
S5Mutl2Cernik2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMutlCernikM − CBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match39.433.1+6.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 126 vs 364 / 79647.6%45.7%60 / 126 vs 364 / 796Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlMutl 1.44/Cernik 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl236890J. Cernik331111113
WAug 22 · 03:00D. Mutl4071111113J. Cernik33116791
WAug 22 · 01:00D. Mutl3911611113J. Cernik30811651
WJul 2 · 23:30D. Mutl331111113J. Cernik172780
WMay 20 · 24:30D. Mutl331111113J. Cernik193790
WMay 18 · 10:30D. Mutl50811911113J. Cernik3811711272
WMay 18 · 08:59D. Mutl49911117113J. Cernik3311901122
LMay 18 · 08:00D. Mutl46111111942J. Cernik50136911113
LMar 29 · 02:30D. Mutl42810111122J. Cernik45111247113
D. Mutl10
LSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113
J. Cernik10
WSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113LSep 10 · 07:00A. Hejduk1.571112113J. Cernik2.2541060LSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113
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