TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092732
Played Sep 7Finished
Miloslav Lubas
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118113––––
David Mutl
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiloslav Lubas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiloslav Lubas above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Miloslav Lubas at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Lubas 1–0 David Mutl David Mutl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Lubas beat Mutl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lubas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lubas 1240 vs Mutl 1139
Lubas
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lubas 60% vs Mutl 40%
Lubas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lubas 40% vs Mutl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lubas +3 · Mutl -2
Lubas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lubas) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLubas 1.67 / Mutl 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Lubas)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092732
Lubas1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 26 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Mutl2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLubas1wins
AwayMutl0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLubas leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLubasMutlL − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.045.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLubasMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 325 vs 60 / 12448.6%48.4%158 / 325 vs 60 / 124Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LubasLubas 1.67/Mutl 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Lubas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lubas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas—911811123D. Mutl—116117102
M. Lubas10
WSep 7 · 12:30M. Lubas1.731111113M. Regner2.004440WSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133LSep 3 · 21:00J. Pelikan1.67411211113M. Lubas2.1011811452LSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113LSep 3 · 19:00M. Lubas2.101011111282J. Pelikan1.67124314113LSep 3 · 18:00J. Grohsgott2.2011119113M. Lubas1.61581191LAug 29 · 17:30M. Vaclavik1.801211113M. Lubas1.9010690LAug 29 · 16:00M. Lubas1.5312950M. Vaclavik2.381411113WAug 29 · 15:30V. Stach2.2084121482M. Lubas1.6111111012113
D. Mutl10
LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113
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