TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124460
Played Sep 14Finished
Jan Srba
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811118119118––
Milan Vrabec
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:44 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeJan Srba to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srba above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Srba at 65.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srba 4–0 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Srba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Srba
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Srba 1273 vs Vrabec 1115
Srba
Correct
both rated, 157 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srba 80% vs Vrabec 60%
Srba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srba 70% vs Vrabec 50%
Srba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Srba +1 · Vrabec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Srba) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrba 1.20 / Vrabec 4.33
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Srba)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124460
Srba1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Vrabec4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 27 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSrba4wins
AwayVrabec0wins
Srba leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSrba100%3 of 3
AwayVrabecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Srba3Vrabec1n = 4Srba took 3 of 4
S2Srba4Vrabec0n = 4Srba took 4 of 4
S3Srba3Vrabec1n = 4Srba took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSrbaVrabecS − VBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match37.224.5+12.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrbaVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 61 vs 177 / 35155.7%50.4%34 / 61 vs 177 / 351Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrbaSrba 1.20/Vrabec 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Srba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Srba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 14 · 06:00J. Srba4181111113M. Vrabec36118981
WSep 7 · 07:00J. Srba4011117113M. Vrabec29951141
WMay 25 · 09:30J. Srba331111113M. Vrabec123450
WMay 25 · 07:00J. Srba351311113M. Vrabec2111370
J. Srba10
WSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113WSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113WSep 10 · 06:00J. Srba1.50911119113A. Hejduk2.5011551192WSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101LSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WJun 8 · 08:58J. Vrba1.8349110J. Srba1.831111133LJun 8 · 08:30J. Srba1.73113671J. Vrba2.0061111113
M. Vrabec10
LSep 13 · 13:30M. Vrabec2.20611110M. Syroha1.601113133WSep 13 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.575880M. Vrabec2.251111113WSep 13 · 11:30M. Vrabec3.00741113113M. Syroha1.36111191152WSep 13 · 10:30V. Stach1.441091271M. Vrabec2.63121110113LSep 12 · 16:58M. Syroha1.5011117113M. Vrabec2.50941131LSep 12 · 16:00J. Grohsgott1.671111113M. Vrabec2.105780LSep 12 · 15:00M. Syroha1.44811913113M. Vrabec2.63115111152LSep 12 · 14:30M. Vrabec3.507380J. Svec1.281111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113
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