TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120607
Played Sep 13Finished
Zdenek Kasinski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811811––––
Milan Vrabec
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Kasinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Kasinski above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Zdenek Kasinski at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Kasinski 1–1 Milan Vrabec Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kasinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kasinski 1186 vs Vrabec 1115
Kasinski
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasinski 80% vs Vrabec 40%
Kasinski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasinski 60% vs Vrabec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasinski +1 · Vrabec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kasinski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasinski 1.57 / Vrabec 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kasinski)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13120607
Kasinski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite33% won 9 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it56% 9 of 16
Vrabec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back11% 7 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKasinski1wins
AwayVrabec1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKasinskiVrabecK − VBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.045.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasinskiVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 157 vs 176 / 34846.5%50.6%73 / 157 vs 176 / 348Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasinskiKasinski 1.57/Vrabec 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Kasinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 14 · 17:30Z. Kasinski36118981M. Vrabec4291111113
WAug 14 · 15:00Z. Kasinski42111115143M. Vrabec48591111122
Z. Kasinski10
WSep 13 · 11:00Z. Kasinski2.101111113V. Stach1.679970LSep 13 · 10:00M. Syroha1.91891111123Z. Kasinski1.80111122102WSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.67114511113A. Hejduk2.1081111562WSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 28 · 13:00J. Cernik2.0010650Z. Kasinski1.731211113LAug 28 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.53115551L. Novotny2.3891111113LAug 28 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.73121210852J. Cernik2.0010101211113LAug 28 · 10:00J. Strnad2.6361111113Z. Kasinski1.44114871
M. Vrabec10
WSep 13 · 11:30M. Vrabec3.00741113113M. Syroha1.36111191152WSep 13 · 10:30V. Stach1.441091271M. Vrabec2.63121110113LSep 12 · 16:58M. Syroha1.5011117113M. Vrabec2.50941131LSep 12 · 16:00J. Grohsgott1.671111113M. Vrabec2.105780LSep 12 · 15:00M. Syroha1.44811913113M. Vrabec2.63115111152LSep 12 · 14:30M. Vrabec3.507380J. Svec1.281111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Vrabec
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