TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115327
Played Sep 12Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311811––––
Jiri Svec
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Svec to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Jiri Svec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-9
Point 47 set 3, 6-9 — our read held Jiri Svec at 55.9%
47 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Milan Vrabec 2–21 Jiri Svec Milan Vrabec has won 2 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Svec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-21 in 23
Svec
Correct
gap of 19 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1189 vs Svec 1249
Svec
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 80% vs Svec 60%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 70% vs Svec 50%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec +2 · Svec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Svec) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svec form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 3.50 / Svec 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Svec)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115327
Vrabec3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 26 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Svec1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 58 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 43 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrabec0wins
AwaySvec10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvec leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySvec100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec2Svec8n = 10Svec took 8 of 10
S2Vrabec1Svec9n = 10Svec took 9 of 10
S3Vrabec0Svec10n = 10Svec took 10 of 10
S4Vrabec2Svec1n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrabecSvecV − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match26.738.6−11.9per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecSvecBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 350 vs 395 / 84950.9%46.5%178 / 350 vs 395 / 849Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvecVrabec 3.50/Svec 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Svec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 09:29M. Vrabec42111021362J. Svec538121111113
LAug 1 · 08:30M. Vrabec216870J. Svec331111113
LJul 20 · 06:30M. Vrabec229490J. Svec331111113
LMay 30 · 08:30M. Vrabec4141261182J. Svec521110119113
LMay 22 · 06:30M. Vrabec2612770J. Svec361411113
LMay 19 · 07:00M. Vrabec196760J. Svec331111113
LApr 15 · 06:00M. Vrabec2376100J. Svec341111123
LApr 13 · 07:30M. Vrabec2661370J. Svec371115113
LMar 4 · 07:00M. Vrabec31118661J. Svec4291111113
LJan 20 · 10:30M. Vrabec168170J. Svec331111113
M. Vrabec10
LSep 12 · 15:00M. Syroha1.44811913113M. Vrabec2.63115111152WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113
J. Svec10
WSep 12 · 15:30J. Svec2.2091111113J. Grohsgott1.61117681WSep 11 · 17:30M. Regner1.635260J. Svec2.131111113LSep 11 · 16:30J. Svec1.8315660M. Regner1.831711113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Svec1.57111198113V. Stach2.2576111182WSep 11 · 14:00M. Syroha1.679570J. Svec2.101111113LSep 9 · 13:00P. Kulhanek1.401111113J. Svec2.759980LSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781LSep 9 · 11:30J. Svec2.1091111882M. Chalupnicek1.67119911113LSep 9 · 10:30P. Kulhanek1.3311119113J. Svec3.25661181WSep 8 · 12:59J. Svec1.573111411113L. Madle2.2511316892
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