TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13116018
Played Sep 11Finished
Milan Regner
Home
1.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511211611––––
Jiri Svec
Away
2.13
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Regner above · Jiri Svec below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 46 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Milan Regner at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Milan Regner 6–7 Jiri Svec Milan Regner has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Regner beat Svec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1257 vs Svec 1219
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Svec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Svec 40%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Svec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.63 / Svec 2.13
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Regner)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13116018
Regner1.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 79 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 57 of 72
Svec2.13
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 57 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwaySvec6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner100%4 of 4
AwaySvec100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner4Svec6n = 10Svec took 6 of 10
S2Regner5Svec5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner3Svec7n = 10Svec took 7 of 10
S4Regner0Svec4n = 4Svec took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerSvecR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.938.3−3.4per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSvecBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 529 vs 394 / 84846.5%46.5%246 / 529 vs 394 / 848Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.63/Svec 2.13
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:30M. Regner—1711113J. Svec—15660
LAug 30 · 16:30M. Regner—71160J. Svec—1113113
LAug 29 · 20:30M. Regner—81590J. Svec—1117113
LAug 29 · 08:30M. Regner—511291J. Svec—11911113
WAug 28 · 16:30M. Regner—111197133J. Svec—861111112
LAug 25 · 12:59M. Regner—5711101J. Svec—11119123
LAug 25 · 12:30M. Regner—121060J. Svec—1412113
WJun 22 · 08:30M. Regner—1111713113J. Svec—88111592
LJun 2 · 10:00M. Regner—101080J. Svec—1212113
WMay 29 · 12:30M. Regner—1112113J. Svec—81090
M. Regner10
WSep 11 · 16:30J. Svec1.8315660M. Regner1.831711113LSep 11 · 15:30M. Regner1.9161111422M. Syroha1.80118911113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Stach2.3878110M. Regner1.531111133LSep 9 · 09:28M. Regner1.309680J. Grohsgott3.401111113LSep 9 · 08:30M. Regner1.3368121182L. Madle3.251111109113WSep 9 · 07:00M. Regner1.5311511113L. Forman2.38611271WSep 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott3.009760M. Regner1.361111113WSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113LSep 7 · 12:30M. Lubas1.731111113M. Regner2.004440WSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540
J. Svec10
LSep 11 · 16:30J. Svec1.8315660M. Regner1.831711113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Svec1.57111198113V. Stach2.2576111182WSep 11 · 14:00M. Syroha1.679570J. Svec2.101111113LSep 9 · 13:00P. Kulhanek1.401111113J. Svec2.759980LSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781LSep 9 · 11:30J. Svec2.1091111882M. Chalupnicek1.67119911113LSep 9 · 10:30P. Kulhanek1.3311119113J. Svec3.25661181WSep 8 · 12:59J. Svec1.573111411113L. Madle2.2511316892WSep 8 · 12:30L. Madle2.257890J. Svec1.571111113LSep 8 · 11:30J. Svec2.10781151J. Grohsgott1.6711119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Regner
Nothing scheduled
J. Svec
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