TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098136
Played Sep 9Finished
Milan Regner
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6118111210119811
Ludek Madle
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 65.9% is still 65.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
65.9%
65.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Regner above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Milan Regner at 65.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Milan Regner 6–1 Ludek Madle Ludek Madle has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:12What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Regner
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1247 vs Madle 1220
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Madle 20%
Regner
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Madle 40%
Regner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +3 · Madle -1
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.33 / Madle 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Regner)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098136
Regner1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 80 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 58 of 74
Madle3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 41 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRegner6wins
AwayMadle1wins
1 of 7 to a deciderRegner leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner100%3 of 3
AwayMadle25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner3Madle4n = 7Madle took 4 of 7
S2Regner6Madle1n = 7Regner took 6 of 7
S3Regner6Madle1n = 7Regner took 6 of 7
S4Regner3Madle2n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricRegnerMadleR − MBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.132.7+7.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 524 vs 261 / 54546.6%47.9%244 / 524 vs 261 / 545Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.33/Madle 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 25 · 10:00M. Regner—711691L. Madle—11911113
WAug 21 · 06:30M. Regner—1111113L. Madle—2860
WJul 23 · 16:59M. Regner—14911113L. Madle—1211791
WJul 23 · 16:30M. Regner—91111113L. Madle—116481
WJul 22 · 09:28M. Regner—712139113L. Madle—1110111142
WJul 22 · 08:30M. Regner—1111113L. Madle—6590
WJun 1 · 08:30M. Regner—61115113L. Madle—1191331
M. Regner10
LSep 9 · 09:28M. Regner1.309680J. Grohsgott3.401111113WSep 9 · 07:00M. Regner1.5311511113L. Forman2.38611271WSep 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott3.009760M. Regner1.361111113WSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113LSep 7 · 12:30M. Lubas1.731111113M. Regner2.004440WSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113
L. Madle10
LSep 9 · 09:05L. Madle1.83911371L. Forman1.8311811113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Madle1.618880J. Grohsgott2.201111113WSep 9 · 06:30L. Forman2.0088111172L. Madle1.73111197113LSep 8 · 12:59J. Svec1.573111411113L. Madle2.2511316892LSep 8 · 12:30L. Madle2.257890J. Svec1.571111113LSep 8 · 11:00L. Madle3.506119101P. Sudek1.2811511123LSep 8 · 10:00J. Grohsgott2.2571111113L. Madle1.57119991LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 12:00L. Madle1.57111214113M. Lubas2.257141271WAug 25 · 11:30J. Svec1.6110111171L. Madle2.2012813113
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