TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13003420
Played Aug 25Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11712141412117––
Miloslav Lubas
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Miloslav Lubas below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 88 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ludek Madle at 59.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 5–4 Miloslav Lubas Miloslav Lubas has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1258 vs Lubas 1221
Madle
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 40% vs Lubas 60%
Lubas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 50% vs Lubas 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle +2 · Lubas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Madle)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lubas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.57 / Lubas 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Madle)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13003420
Madle1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 69 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 77
Lubas2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 43 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back17% 5 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMadle5wins
AwayLubas4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMadle leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle80%4 of 5
AwayLubas75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle5Lubas4n = 9Madle took 5 of 9
S2Madle7Lubas2n = 9Madle took 7 of 9
S3Madle4Lubas5n = 9Lubas took 5 of 9
S4Madle2Lubas4n = 6Lubas took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMadleLubasM − LBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.133.1+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleLubasBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 543 vs 152 / 32048.4%47.5%263 / 543 vs 152 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.57/Lubas 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WMar 26 · 12:00L. Madle—11911113M. Lubas—811371
LMar 18 · 13:30L. Madle—111278112M. Lubas—3101111133
WFeb 24 · 11:00L. Madle—1111113M. Lubas—7650
WJul 9 · 10:30L. Madle—1111113M. Lubas—8450
LJun 17 · 12:30L. Madle—711481M. Lubas—11211113
LMar 4 · 09:30L. Madle—511691M. Lubas—11911113
WFeb 14 · 11:00L. Madle—111110113M. Lubas—771291
WJan 31 · 09:30L. Madle—811118113M. Lubas—11771152
LJan 22 · 08:00L. Madle—9870M. Lubas—1111113
L. Madle10
LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 11:30J. Svec1.6110111171L. Madle2.2012813113WAug 25 · 10:00L. Madle4.0011911113M. Regner1.22711691LAug 24 · 08:58J. Grohsgott2.20614811113L. Madle1.61111211782LAug 24 · 08:30J. Svec1.73711118113L. Madle2.0011541142LAug 24 · 07:30L. Madle1.4411991682J. Grohsgott2.638111114113LAug 24 · 06:30J. Potensky2.20811911113L. Madle1.6111711572WAug 21 · 09:29M. Chalupnicek2.1015137592L. Madle1.6713111111113WAug 21 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek1.9191111172L. Madle1.80111187113WAug 21 · 07:00J. Grohsgott2.386420L. Madle1.531111113
M. Lubas10
LSep 3 · 21:00J. Pelikan1.67411211113M. Lubas2.1011811452LSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113LSep 3 · 19:00M. Lubas2.101011111282J. Pelikan1.67124314113LSep 3 · 18:00J. Grohsgott2.2011119113M. Lubas1.61581191LAug 29 · 17:30M. Vaclavik1.801211113M. Lubas1.9010690LAug 29 · 16:00M. Lubas1.5312950M. Vaclavik2.381411113WAug 29 · 15:30V. Stach2.2084121482M. Lubas1.6111111012113WAug 29 · 14:00M. Lubas1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.005470WAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 11:00M. Regner1.8381050M. Lubas1.831112113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Lubas
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