TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13003419
Played Aug 25Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911116119––
Milan Regner
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:01 and never touched — 82.6% is still 82.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
82.6%
82.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Milan Regner below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Milan Regner at 82.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 0–6 Milan Regner Ludek Madle has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Regner
Wrong
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1231 vs Regner 1338
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 20% vs Regner 100%
Regner
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 30% vs Regner 80%
Regner
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle -4 · Regner +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Regner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 4.00 / Regner 1.22
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Regner)+6.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13003419
Madle4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 43 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Regner1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 79 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMadle0wins
AwayRegner6wins
1 of 6 to a deciderRegner leads 6–0, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle0%0 of 3
AwayRegner100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle3Regner3n = 6split evenly
S2Madle1Regner5n = 6Regner took 5 of 6
S3Madle0Regner6n = 6Regner took 6 of 6
S4Madle1Regner3n = 4Regner took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMadleRegnerM − RBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match31.241.3−10.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 541 vs 236 / 50248.2%47%261 / 541 vs 236 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerMadle 4.00/Regner 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.6%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 21 · 06:30L. Madle—2860M. Regner—1111113
LJul 23 · 16:59L. Madle—1211791M. Regner—14911113
LJul 23 · 16:30L. Madle—116481M. Regner—91111113
LJul 22 · 09:28L. Madle—1110111142M. Regner—712139113
LJul 22 · 08:30L. Madle—6590M. Regner—1111113
LJun 1 · 08:30L. Madle—1191331M. Regner—61115113
L. Madle10
LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 12:00L. Madle1.57111214113M. Lubas2.257141271WAug 25 · 11:30J. Svec1.6110111171L. Madle2.2012813113LAug 24 · 08:58J. Grohsgott2.20614811113L. Madle1.61111211782LAug 24 · 08:30J. Svec1.73711118113L. Madle2.0011541142LAug 24 · 07:30L. Madle1.4411991682J. Grohsgott2.638111114113LAug 24 · 06:30J. Potensky2.20811911113L. Madle1.6111711572WAug 21 · 09:29M. Chalupnicek2.1015137592L. Madle1.6713111111113WAug 21 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek1.9191111172L. Madle1.80111187113WAug 21 · 07:00J. Grohsgott2.386420L. Madle1.531111113
M. Regner10
WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113WSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451LSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113WSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113LAug 30 · 16:58M. Barta2.75114611113M. Regner1.4051111962LAug 30 · 16:30J. Svec2.001113113M. Regner1.7371160
Upcoming Matches
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M. Regner
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