TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12479378
Played Aug 24Finished
Jan Potensky
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117911115117
Ludek Madle
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Potensky above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ludek Madle at 62.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Potensky 20–19 Ludek Madle Ludek Madle has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Madle
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-19 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potensky 1171 vs Madle 1273
Madle
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potensky 0% vs Madle 60%
Madle
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potensky 30% vs Madle 60%
Madle
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potensky -5 · Madle +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Madle) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potensky form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotensky 2.20 / Madle 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Madle)+2.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12479378
Potensky2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 50 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Madle1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 69 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotensky5wins
AwayMadle5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotensky66.7%2 of 3
AwayMadle57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potensky3Madle7n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S2Potensky6Madle4n = 10Potensky took 6 of 10
S3Potensky3Madle7n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S4Potensky3Madle4n = 7Madle took 4 of 7
S5Potensky4Madle1n = 5Potensky took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotenskyMadleP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.838.1−2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotenskyMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 485 vs 264 / 54547.6%48.4%231 / 485 vs 264 / 545Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadlePotensky 2.20/Madle 1.61
Miss
What we said
59.9%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Potensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 06:30J. Potensky—811911113L. Madle—11711572
LAug 11 · 07:00J. Potensky—44100L. Madle—1111123
WAug 6 · 09:29J. Potensky—1111113L. Madle—7280
WAug 6 · 08:30J. Potensky—1111126113L. Madle—84141172
LAug 4 · 02:59J. Potensky—311971L. Madle—11911113
LAug 4 · 24:30J. Potensky—31191192L. Madle—118119113
LJul 16 · 23:00J. Potensky—115781L. Madle—71111113
WJul 14 · 07:00J. Potensky—671111113L. Madle—11119862
LJun 24 · 07:00J. Potensky—6410L. Madle—1111113
WJun 18 · 23:30J. Potensky—711115113L. Madle—11811142
J. Potensky10
LAug 31 · 03:00J. Potensky1.6011391192A. Hejduk2.20411119113LAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113WAug 31 · 01:30D. Mutl1.91811771J. Potensky1.8011511113WAug 31 · 24:00J. Potensky1.53111143163A. Hejduk2.38751111142LAug 30 · 23:00J. Grohsgott1.83111110113J. Potensky1.83951261WAug 27 · 09:30J. Potensky1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83117331WAug 27 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.678780J. Potensky2.101111113WAug 27 · 07:00V. Stach1.91811781J. Potensky1.8011511113WAug 27 · 06:30J. Potensky1.5751211113A. Hejduk2.251110671LAug 24 · 09:28J. Svec1.8311514113J. Potensky1.834111251
L. Madle10
LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 12:00L. Madle1.57111214113M. Lubas2.257141271WAug 25 · 11:30J. Svec1.6110111171L. Madle2.2012813113WAug 25 · 10:00L. Madle4.0011911113M. Regner1.22711691LAug 24 · 08:58J. Grohsgott2.20614811113L. Madle1.61111211782LAug 24 · 08:30J. Svec1.73711118113L. Madle2.0011541142LAug 24 · 07:30L. Madle1.4411991682J. Grohsgott2.638111114113WAug 21 · 09:29M. Chalupnicek2.1015137592L. Madle1.6713111111113WAug 21 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek1.9191111172L. Madle1.80111187113WAug 21 · 07:00J. Grohsgott2.386420L. Madle1.531111113
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