TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465646
Played Aug 21Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911111118117711
Ludek Madle
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 14–25 Ludek Madle Milan Chalupnicek has won 14 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-25 in 39
Madle
Correct
gap of 11 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1337 vs Madle 1248
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 100% vs Madle 40%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 90% vs Madle 40%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +5 · Madle +1
Chalupnicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 1.91 / Madle 1.80
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+10.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465646
Chalupnicek1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 58 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back19% 8 of 42
Madle1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 69 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it69% 52 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek5wins
AwayMadle5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek80%4 of 5
AwayMadle80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek5Madle5n = 10split evenly
S2Chalupnicek2Madle8n = 10Madle took 8 of 10
S3Chalupnicek6Madle4n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S4Chalupnicek5Madle1n = 6Chalupnicek took 5 of 6
S5Chalupnicek2Madle2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekMadleC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.0−0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 661 vs 259 / 53549.9%48.4%330 / 661 vs 259 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekChalupnicek 1.91/Madle 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—11812113L. Madle—6111091
LJul 30 · 13:30M. Chalupnicek—461161L. Madle—11118113
LJul 30 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—67111482L. Madle—1111812113
WJul 27 · 07:30M. Chalupnicek—1111113L. Madle—6730
LJul 22 · 07:30M. Chalupnicek—48100L. Madle—1111123
LJul 15 · 09:30M. Chalupnicek—8380L. Madle—1111113
WJul 15 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—1181111113L. Madle—81113872
LJul 6 · 06:30M. Chalupnicek—15761162L. Madle—1311114113
WJun 22 · 09:00M. Chalupnicek—1111113L. Madle—8460
WJun 22 · 06:30M. Chalupnicek—9111112123L. Madle—1113810102
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113
L. Madle10
LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 12:00L. Madle1.57111214113M. Lubas2.257141271WAug 25 · 11:30J. Svec1.6110111171L. Madle2.2012813113WAug 25 · 10:00L. Madle4.0011911113M. Regner1.22711691LAug 24 · 08:58J. Grohsgott2.20614811113L. Madle1.61111211782LAug 24 · 08:30J. Svec1.73711118113L. Madle2.0011541142LAug 24 · 07:30L. Madle1.4411991682J. Grohsgott2.638111114113LAug 24 · 06:30J. Potensky2.20811911113L. Madle1.6111711572WAug 21 · 09:29M. Chalupnicek2.1015137592L. Madle1.6713111111113WAug 21 · 07:00J. Grohsgott2.386420L. Madle1.531111113
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