TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465636
Played Aug 21Finished
Jiri Grohsgott
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611411211––––
Ludek Madle
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 45 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Ludek Madle at 55.7%
45 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 35–34 Ludek Madle Ludek Madle has won 34 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-34 in 69
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1024 vs Madle 1286
Madle
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 0% vs Madle 20%
Madle
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 10% vs Madle 40%
Madle
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott -5 · Madle -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Madle) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 2.38 / Madle 1.53
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Madle)+8.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465636
Grohsgott2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 137 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back20% 39 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 116
Madle1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 72 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it70% 54 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott2wins
AwayMadle8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMadle leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott50%2 of 4
AwayMadle100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott4Madle6n = 10Madle took 6 of 10
S2Grohsgott2Madle8n = 10Madle took 8 of 10
S3Grohsgott3Madle7n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S4Grohsgott1Madle6n = 7Madle took 6 of 7
S5Grohsgott2Madle1n = 3Grohsgott took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottMadleG − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.541.0−8.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime748 / 1545 vs 261 / 53748.4%48.6%748 / 1545 vs 261 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleGrohsgott 2.38/Madle 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 07:00J. Grohsgott—6420L. Madle—1111113
WAug 20 · 08:59J. Grohsgott—118117123L. Madle—711511102
LAug 20 · 07:00J. Grohsgott—6560L. Madle—1111113
LAug 13 · 06:00J. Grohsgott—1111791L. Madle—13811113
LAug 11 · 08:00J. Grohsgott—144691L. Madle—121111113
LAug 6 · 06:00J. Grohsgott—971141L. Madle—11117113
LJul 22 · 06:30J. Grohsgott—381191L. Madle—11116113
LJul 16 · 22:00J. Grohsgott—11169552L. Madle—7141111113
WJul 14 · 09:00J. Grohsgott—118711113L. Madle—71111982
LJul 14 · 06:00J. Grohsgott—8930L. Madle—1111113
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880
L. Madle10
LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113WAug 25 · 12:00L. Madle1.57111214113M. Lubas2.257141271WAug 25 · 11:30J. Svec1.6110111171L. Madle2.2012813113WAug 25 · 10:00L. Madle4.0011911113M. Regner1.22711691LAug 24 · 08:58J. Grohsgott2.20614811113L. Madle1.61111211782LAug 24 · 08:30J. Svec1.73711118113L. Madle2.0011541142LAug 24 · 07:30L. Madle1.4411991682J. Grohsgott2.638111114113LAug 24 · 06:30J. Potensky2.20811911113L. Madle1.6111711572WAug 21 · 09:29M. Chalupnicek2.1015137592L. Madle1.6713111111113WAug 21 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek1.9191111172L. Madle1.80111187113
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