TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124838
Played Sep 13Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
61111131113––––
Michal Syroha
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Syroha to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Michal Syroha below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 65 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Michal Syroha at 60.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 3–12 Michal Syroha Milan Vrabec has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vrabec beat Syroha 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Syroha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-12 in 15
Syroha
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1132 vs Syroha 1198
Syroha
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 60% vs Syroha 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 50% vs Syroha 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec +3 · Syroha +1
Vrabec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Syroha) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 2.20 / Syroha 1.60
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Syroha)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124838
Vrabec2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back11% 7 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Syroha1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 76 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it78% 52 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrabec2wins
AwaySyroha8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSyroha leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySyroha75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec2Syroha8n = 10Syroha took 8 of 10
S2Vrabec4Syroha6n = 10Syroha took 6 of 10
S3Vrabec4Syroha6n = 10Syroha took 6 of 10
S4Vrabec4Syroha3n = 7Vrabec took 4 of 7
S5Vrabec1Syroha4n = 5Syroha took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrabecSyrohaV − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.141.3−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecSyrohaBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 348 vs 339 / 67650.6%50.2%176 / 348 vs 339 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SyrohaVrabec 2.20/Syroha 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.4%
Syroha · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Syroha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 16:58M. Vrabec27941131M. Syroha4011117113
LSep 12 · 15:00M. Vrabec43115111152M. Syroha52811913113
LAug 22 · 07:30M. Vrabec4451191182M. Syroha44117114113
LJun 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec48116812112M. Syroha505111110133
LMay 17 · 08:58M. Vrabec2481060M. Syroha341112113
WMay 17 · 07:00M. Vrabec473111110123M. Syroha48119612102
LDec 31 · 21:30M. Vrabec214980M. Syroha331111113
LDec 19 · 12:30M. Vrabec3581121132M. Syroha47118116113
LMay 4 · 24:00M. Vrabec246990M. Syroha331111113
WMay 2 · 12:00M. Vrabec3851111113M. Syroha32116961
M. Vrabec10
WSep 13 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.575880M. Vrabec2.251111113WSep 13 · 11:30M. Vrabec3.00741113113M. Syroha1.36111191152WSep 13 · 10:30V. Stach1.441091271M. Vrabec2.63121110113LSep 12 · 16:58M. Syroha1.5011117113M. Vrabec2.50941131LSep 12 · 16:00J. Grohsgott1.671111113M. Vrabec2.105780LSep 12 · 15:00M. Syroha1.44811913113M. Vrabec2.63115111152LSep 12 · 14:30M. Vrabec3.507380J. Svec1.281111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113
M. Syroha10
WSep 13 · 12:00M. Syroha2.201111123V. Stach1.6188100LSep 13 · 11:30M. Vrabec3.00741113113M. Syroha1.36111191152WSep 13 · 10:00M. Syroha1.91891111123Z. Kasinski1.80111122102WSep 12 · 16:58M. Syroha1.5011117113M. Vrabec2.50941131LSep 12 · 16:30M. Syroha1.8391120J. Svec1.831113113WSep 12 · 15:00M. Syroha1.44811913113M. Vrabec2.63115111152LSep 12 · 14:00J. Grohsgott1.73111169113M. Syroha2.0097111172LSep 11 · 17:00M. Syroha2.0013630V. Stach1.701511113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Syroha2.00111262122V. Stach1.733101111143WSep 11 · 15:30M. Regner1.9161111422M. Syroha1.80118911113
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