TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124461
Played Sep 14Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711911––––
David Mutl
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 4–1 David Mutl David Mutl has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vrabec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Vrabec
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1101 vs Mutl 1128
Mutl
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 60% vs Mutl 20%
Vrabec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 40% vs Mutl 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec -2 · Mutl -4
Mutl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 1.44 / Mutl 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Vrabec)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124461
Vrabec1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 74 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it90% 52 of 58
Mutl2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVrabec4wins
AwayMutl1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVrabec leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec100%3 of 3
AwayMutln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec3Mutl2n = 5Vrabec took 3 of 5
S2Vrabec2Mutl3n = 5Mutl took 3 of 5
S3Vrabec3Mutl2n = 5Vrabec took 3 of 5
S4Vrabec2Mutl1n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVrabecMutlV − MBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.034.0+5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 352 vs 61 / 12750.3%48%177 / 352 vs 61 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecVrabec 1.44/Mutl 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec259790D. Mutl331111113
WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec3711114113D. Mutl32971151
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Vrabec331111113D. Mutl100460
WJun 16 · 09:30M. Vrabec531191111113D. Mutl4513115882
WJun 16 · 06:30M. Vrabec47139113113D. Mutl50111181192
M. Vrabec10
LSep 14 · 06:00J. Srba1.2081111113M. Vrabec4.33118981LSep 13 · 13:30M. Vrabec2.20611110M. Syroha1.601113133WSep 13 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.575880M. Vrabec2.251111113WSep 13 · 11:30M. Vrabec3.00741113113M. Syroha1.36111191152WSep 13 · 10:30V. Stach1.441091271M. Vrabec2.63121110113LSep 12 · 16:58M. Syroha1.5011117113M. Vrabec2.50941131LSep 12 · 16:00J. Grohsgott1.671111113M. Vrabec2.105780LSep 12 · 15:00M. Syroha1.44811913113M. Vrabec2.63115111152LSep 12 · 14:30M. Vrabec3.507380J. Svec1.281111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151
D. Mutl10
LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113LSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113
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