TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125572
Played Sep 14Finished
David Mutl
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116411119––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:12 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held David Mutl at 57.7%
68 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mutl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1120 vs Novotny 1140
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 40% vs Novotny 20%
Mutl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 30% vs Novotny 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -1 · Novotny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Mutl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 1.61 / Novotny 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Mutl)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125572
Mutl1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 26 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Novotny2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 130 vs 181 / 36547.7%49.6%62 / 130 vs 181 / 365Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlMutl 1.61/Novotny 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mutl won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Mutl10
LSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik2.10551111113D. Mutl1.6711119772WSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.449790D. Mutl2.631111113LSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113LSep 7 · 13:30M. Lubas1.671111113D. Mutl2.107830LSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:00M. Lubas1.73911811123D. Mutl2.00116117102WSep 7 · 10:30D. Mutl3.251111113M. Regner1.338980LSep 7 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.5811114113D. Mutl2.25971151
L. Novotny10
WSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352LSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961LSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113WSep 10 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.83111171262L. Novotny1.83771114113LSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113WSep 10 · 06:30J. Cernik1.9147110L. Novotny1.801111133LSep 8 · 09:00L. Novotny1.73111199102A. Hejduk2.00981111123
Upcoming Matches
D. Mutl
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
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