TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126079
Played Sep 14Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811118311––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 72 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Ludek Madle at 63.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 15–16 Jaromir Cernik Ludek Madle has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Madle
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1184 vs Cernik 1115
Madle
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 40% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 20% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle -2 · Cernik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Madle)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.50 / Cernik 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Madle)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126079
Madle1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 61 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Cernik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 46 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMadle5wins
AwayCernik5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle60%3 of 5
AwayCernik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S2Madle5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Madle7Cernik3n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S4Madle4Cernik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMadleCernikM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.4+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 543 vs 363 / 79647.9%45.6%260 / 543 vs 363 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.50/Cernik 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle31981131J. Cernik4111118113
WJun 2 · 08:59L. Madle4491113113J. Cernik381171191
LJun 2 · 07:00L. Madle26117531J. Cernik3741111113
WMay 18 · 07:30L. Madle44101111123J. Cernik331238101
WMay 7 · 06:00L. Madle371111153J. Cernik2575130
LMay 4 · 07:00L. Madle419911121J. Cernik4011114143
WDec 24 · 08:00L. Madle331111113J. Cernik218580
LOct 28 · 10:30L. Madle3712341172J. Cernik511011118113
LOct 28 · 08:00L. Madle389111081J. Cernik3911512113
WOct 24 · 02:30L. Madle4211911113J. Cernik29711561
L. Madle10
LSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 9 · 09:05L. Madle1.83911371L. Forman1.8311811113WSep 9 · 08:30M. Regner1.3368121182L. Madle3.251111109113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Madle1.618880J. Grohsgott2.201111113WSep 9 · 06:30L. Forman2.0088111172L. Madle1.73111197113LSep 8 · 12:59J. Svec1.573111411113L. Madle2.2511316892LSep 8 · 12:30L. Madle2.257890J. Svec1.571111113LSep 8 · 11:00L. Madle3.506119101P. Sudek1.2811511123LSep 8 · 10:00J. Grohsgott2.2571111113L. Madle1.57119991LAug 25 · 13:29L. Madle1.53812661M. Lubas2.38111011113
J. Cernik10
WSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik2.10551111113D. Mutl1.6711119772LSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.401411113J. Cernik2.7512660LSep 14 · 07:30J. Cernik1.808880J. Srba1.911111113WSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113WSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961WSep 10 · 09:10A. Hejduk1.551111101052J. Cernik2.30241212113
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