TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154009
Played Sep 20Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11813116117111113
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Berdych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 102 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Pavel Berdych at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 8–11 Miroslav Novotny Pavel Berdych has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Novotny
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1281 vs Novotny 1234
Berdych
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 60% vs Novotny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 30% vs Novotny 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych +1 · Novotny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 2.00 / Novotny 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novotny)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154009
Berdych2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 19 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Novotny1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 30 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it65% 24 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych50%2 of 4
AwayNovotny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Berdych3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S3Berdych3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Berdych5Novotny3n = 8Berdych took 5 of 8
S5Berdych2Novotny1n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychNovotnyB − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.340.2−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 436 vs 151 / 32848.4%46%211 / 436 vs 151 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyBerdych 2.00/Novotny 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych47111110153M. Novotny429812131
WSep 10 · 18:30P. Berdych51991111113M. Novotny3711116452
LSep 6 · 01:00P. Berdych23112821M. Novotny3961111113
WOct 15 · 17:30P. Berdych3511112113M. Novotny378111081
LOct 15 · 15:30P. Berdych4381181332M. Novotny521181111113
LSep 26 · 14:00P. Berdych321011561M. Novotny4112711113
LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych36118981M. Novotny4071111113
WSep 6 · 02:00P. Berdych531371111113M. Novotny4615119652
LAug 23 · 03:03P. Berdych1941140M. Novotny351113113
LAug 23 · 02:00P. Berdych143650M. Novotny331111113
P. Berdych10
WSep 20 · 02:59P. Berdych1.611111123L. Havrda2.2065100WSep 20 · 01:30J. Pelikan1.28611691P. Berdych3.5011411113LSep 20 · 24:00P. Berdych1.50613111172L. Havrda2.50111579113WSep 19 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.635660P. Berdych1.441111113WSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861LSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 19 · 10:30P. Berdych2.1041161162J. Strnad1.67118119113LSep 14 · 17:00P. Kulhanek1.5061111123P. Berdych2.501159101LSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921
M. Novotny10
LSep 20 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.53551113113M. Novotny2.35111151142WSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113LSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:00M. Novotny1.5011136113J. Grohsgott2.505111161WSep 14 · 21:00P. Bruzek1.5728111172M. Novotny2.25111166113LSep 14 · 20:30M. Novotny2.20981141J. Framberk1.6111117113LSep 14 · 19:00M. Novotny1.61911121182M. Barta2.20116147113LSep 14 · 18:00P. Bruzek1.5781111113M. Novotny2.25115791LSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960
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