TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Josef Pelikan
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5115111151311114
Miroslav Novotny
Away
2.35
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:09 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeJosef Pelikan to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Pelikan above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 87 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Josef Pelikan at 65.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Josef Pelikan 10–2 Miroslav Novotny Miroslav Novotny has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pelikan beat Novotny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pelikan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Pelikan
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelikan 1338 vs Novotny 1230
Pelikan
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelikan 80% vs Novotny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelikan 90% vs Novotny 40%
Pelikan
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelikan -1 · Novotny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Pelikan) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelikan 1.53 / Novotny 2.35
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Pelikan)+6.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13162748
Pelikan1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 47 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Novotny2.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelikan8wins
AwayNovotny2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPelikan leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelikan100%6 of 6
AwayNovotny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelikan6Novotny4n = 10Pelikan took 6 of 10
S2Pelikan7Novotny3n = 10Pelikan took 7 of 10
S3Pelikan3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Pelikan6Novotny0n = 6Pelikan took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelikanNovotnyP − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.1+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelikanNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 296 vs 151 / 32850.3%46%149 / 296 vs 151 / 328Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelikanPelikan 1.53/Novotny 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Pelikan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pelikan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 03:30J. Pelikan45551113113M. Novotny42111151142
WSep 19 · 23:30J. Pelikan341211113M. Novotny1910630
WSep 8 · 17:00J. Pelikan481011511113M. Novotny4212511952
WSep 8 · 16:00J. Pelikan4315125113M. Novotny4113101171
WAug 12 · 17:30J. Pelikan3913111143M. Novotny4111711121
WAug 12 · 14:30J. Pelikan341111123M. Novotny1972100
LJul 3 · 15:00J. Pelikan239950M. Novotny331111113
LApr 22 · 21:00J. Pelikan2036110M. Novotny351111133
WApr 22 · 20:30J. Pelikan3915112113M. Novotny371341191
WApr 12 · 20:30J. Pelikan5011199113M. Novotny428171161
J. Pelikan10
LSep 20 · 01:30J. Pelikan1.28611691P. Berdych3.5011411113WSep 20 · 24:30J. Grohsgott1.836590J. Pelikan1.831111113WSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:30J. Pelikan1.911111113L. Havrda1.807980WSep 16 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.6811911113S. Mazanek2.05911861WSep 16 · 02:30S. Mazanek2.107680J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 16 · 01:00D. Mutl2.105980J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 15 · 23:30J. Pelikan1.22611711113M. Syroha4.0011311772WSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102WSep 11 · 21:29J. Pelikan1.4413511113J. Hyrsl2.631111891
M. Novotny10
WSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133WSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113LSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:00M. Novotny1.5011136113J. Grohsgott2.505111161WSep 14 · 21:00P. Bruzek1.5728111172M. Novotny2.25111166113LSep 14 · 20:30M. Novotny2.20981141J. Framberk1.6111117113LSep 14 · 19:00M. Novotny1.61911121182M. Barta2.20116147113LSep 14 · 18:00P. Bruzek1.5781111113M. Novotny2.25115791LSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960
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