TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126229
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslav Novotny
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811117411––
Jan Framberk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJan Framberk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Jan Framberk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Jan Framberk at 60.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 1–4 Jan Framberk Miroslav Novotny has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Framberk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Framberk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1184 vs Framberk 1414
Framberk
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 0% vs Framberk 80%
Framberk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 10% vs Framberk 60%
Framberk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -5 · Framberk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Framberk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Framberk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.20 / Framberk 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Framberk)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126229
Novotny2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 10 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Framberk1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 40 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeNovotny1wins
AwayFramberk4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderFramberk leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny33.3%1 of 3
AwayFramberkn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny3Framberk2n = 5Novotny took 3 of 5
S2Novotny1Framberk4n = 5Framberk took 4 of 5
S3Novotny4Framberk1n = 5Novotny took 4 of 5
S4Novotny1Framberk4n = 5Framberk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricNovotnyFramberkN − FBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.039.6+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyFramberkBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 331 vs 80 / 14845.9%54.1%152 / 331 vs 80 / 148Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FramberkNovotny 2.20/Framberk 1.61
Hit
What we said
62.1%
Framberk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Framberk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 28 · 20:30M. Novotny45111113552J. Framberk515131111113
WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny43111011113J. Framberk25412451
LAug 28 · 14:30M. Novotny361191151J. Framberk3831113113
LAug 27 · 14:30M. Novotny27251191J. Framberk3911116113
LJul 29 · 19:00M. Novotny4991111992J. Framberk45118411113
M. Novotny10
LSep 14 · 19:00M. Novotny1.61911121182M. Barta2.20116147113LSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960LSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161
J. Framberk10
WSep 14 · 19:30J. Framberk1.61511119113P. Bruzek2.2011891152WSep 14 · 18:30M. Barta2.75811481J. Framberk1.4011511113WSep 14 · 17:30J. Framberk1.731110611113J. Pleskot2.0091211672LSep 14 · 16:00J. Pleskot2.001112511113J. Framberk1.7391411632WSep 14 · 15:00L. Havel2.2012540J. Framberk1.611411113WSep 14 · 14:30J. Framberk1.501111113M. Barta2.507990LSep 8 · 02:59R. Bartunek1.6171112113J. Framberk2.201141071LSep 8 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.73151311123J. Framberk2.0013157101LSep 8 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.4011117113J. Framberk2.75871191WSep 7 · 23:30J. Framberk2.0011118143T. Regner1.739811121
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