TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124021
Played Sep 14Finished
Petr Bruzek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811115117119––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Bruzek above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 64.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Petr Bruzek 5–11 Miroslav Novotny Petr Bruzek has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bruzek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bruzek 1298 vs Novotny 1201
Bruzek
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bruzek 0% vs Novotny 20%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bruzek 10% vs Novotny 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bruzek -5 · Novotny -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bruzek) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBruzek 1.57 / Novotny 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Bruzek)+0.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124021
Bruzek1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 41 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 31 of 39
Novotny2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 10 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBruzek4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBruzek50%3 of 6
AwayNovotny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bruzek6Novotny4n = 10Bruzek took 6 of 10
S2Bruzek4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Bruzek3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Bruzek4Novotny2n = 6Bruzek took 4 of 6
S5Bruzek1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBruzekNovotnyB − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.937.6−2.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBruzekNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 384 vs 155 / 33446.1%46.4%177 / 384 vs 155 / 334Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BruzekBruzek 1.57/Novotny 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Bruzek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bruzek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 18:30P. Bruzek351111133M. Novotny2889110
LFeb 23 · 23:30P. Bruzek2210570M. Novotny341211113
LJan 6 · 02:00P. Bruzek188370M. Novotny331111113
LDec 29 · 04:00P. Bruzek46610111182M. Novotny50111288113
WDec 29 · 02:30P. Bruzek4311147113M. Novotny365121181
WNov 21 · 23:30P. Bruzek491011512113M. Novotny40126111012
LNov 16 · 22:30P. Bruzek321161051M. Novotny4281112113
WNov 16 · 19:30P. Bruzek321111103M. Novotny248880
LOct 27 · 15:30P. Bruzek31126941M. Novotny43101111113
LOct 26 · 01:30P. Bruzek4111561182M. Novotny46411119113
P. Bruzek10
LSep 7 · 02:00P. Bruzek1.9198111252L. Sulava1.801111610113LSep 7 · 01:00P. Bruzek2.108311111R. Hasmanda1.6711119133LSep 7 · 24:00A. Svoboda2.001111123P. Bruzek1.7368100LSep 6 · 22:30M. Novak1.571111113P. Bruzek2.256630LSep 3 · 02:00P. Bruzek2.251111141152R. Hasmanda1.577131213113LSep 3 · 01:00P. Bruzek1.6161151122J. Didi2.20119115113LSep 3 · 24:00O. Vitrovyj1.441311113P. Bruzek2.6311580LSep 2 · 22:30V. Dolezal1.441111113P. Bruzek2.634880LAug 31 · 03:00V. Dolezal1.501111113P. Bruzek2.407680WAug 31 · 02:00P. Bruzek2.751110117113R. Hasmanda1.4091251122
M. Novotny10
LSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960LSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101
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