TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154032
Played Sep 20Finished
Leos Havrda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119115511611511
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1256 vs Novotny 1222
Havrda
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 60% vs Novotny 40%
Havrda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 60% vs Novotny 20%
Havrda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +1 · Novotny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.20 / Novotny 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Havrda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154032
Havrda2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 44 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Novotny1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 30 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it65% 24 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 486 vs 151 / 32846.1%46%224 / 486 vs 151 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyHavrda 2.20/Novotny 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Novotny won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Havrda10
WSep 20 · 24:00P. Berdych1.50613111172L. Havrda2.50111579113LSep 19 · 22:30J. Pelikan1.911111113L. Havrda1.807980WSep 15 · 17:10L. Havrda1.92812611113J. Svec1.78111011962LSep 15 · 16:00V. Stach1.831111113L. Havrda1.839990WSep 15 · 15:00J. Svec1.619118101L. Havrda2.2011711123WSep 15 · 14:30L. Havrda2.0011112113M. Lubas1.73981141WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860
M. Novotny10
LSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:00M. Novotny1.5011136113J. Grohsgott2.505111161WSep 14 · 21:00P. Bruzek1.5728111172M. Novotny2.25111166113LSep 14 · 20:30M. Novotny2.20981141J. Framberk1.6111117113LSep 14 · 19:00M. Novotny1.61911121182M. Barta2.20116147113LSep 14 · 18:00P. Bruzek1.5781111113M. Novotny2.25115791LSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960LSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113
Upcoming Matches
L. Havrda
Nothing scheduled
M. Novotny
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