TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154193
Played Sep 20Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111315117119711
Leos Havrda
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePavel Berdych to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 101 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Pavel Berdych at 60.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 14–10 Leos Havrda Leos Havrda has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Berdych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Berdych
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1278 vs Havrda 1244
Berdych
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 40% vs Havrda 60%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 20% vs Havrda 60%
Havrda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych +2 · Havrda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Berdych) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 1.50 / Havrda 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Berdych)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13154193
Berdych1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it82% 42 of 51
Havrda2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 44 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych4wins
AwayHavrda6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych100%3 of 3
AwayHavrda85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S2Berdych4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Berdych7Havrda3n = 10Berdych took 7 of 10
S4Berdych5Havrda4n = 9Berdych took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychHavrdaB − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.5−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 434 vs 223 / 48548.4%46%210 / 434 vs 223 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerdychBerdych 1.50/Havrda 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.7%
Berdych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 11 · 11:30P. Berdych4291111113L. Havrda23111381
WJun 7 · 15:00P. Berdych4511911143L. Havrda335115121
LJun 6 · 21:00P. Berdych4251111692L. Havrda46119411113
WJun 6 · 19:00P. Berdych46111112123L. Havrda375814101
WMay 30 · 10:00P. Berdych3811411123L. Havrda355119101
LMay 16 · 16:30P. Berdych31371381L. Havrda44111111113
LMay 9 · 12:00P. Berdych133280L. Havrda331111113
LMay 2 · 22:00P. Berdych4898111192L. Havrda45111184113
LMay 1 · 08:30P. Berdych31611591L. Havrda4111811113
LApr 30 · 14:30P. Berdych377911101L. Havrda3811114123
P. Berdych10
WSep 20 · 01:30J. Pelikan1.28611691P. Berdych3.5011411113WSep 19 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.635660P. Berdych1.441111113WSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861LSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 19 · 10:30P. Berdych2.1041161162J. Strnad1.67118119113LSep 14 · 17:00P. Kulhanek1.5061111123P. Berdych2.501159101LSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921LSep 14 · 15:30P. Berdych2.20611341P. Kulhanek1.6111911113LSep 14 · 14:30V. Sr2.25131111113P. Berdych1.57155641
L. Havrda10
LSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113LSep 19 · 22:30J. Pelikan1.911111113L. Havrda1.807980WSep 15 · 17:10L. Havrda1.92812611113J. Svec1.78111011962LSep 15 · 16:00V. Stach1.831111113L. Havrda1.839990WSep 15 · 15:00J. Svec1.619118101L. Havrda2.2011711123WSep 15 · 14:30L. Havrda2.0011112113M. Lubas1.73981141WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860
Upcoming Matches
P. Berdych
L. Havrda
Nothing scheduled
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