TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13144874
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115112114––––
Marian Brunner
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Marian Brunner below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 44 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.0%
44 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 2–0 Marian Brunner Marian Brunner has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1506 vs Brunner 1307
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Brunner 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Brunner 30%
Guzik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +1 · Brunner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brunner form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.17 / Brunner 4.50
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13144874
Guzik1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 127 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 93 of 105
Brunner4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGuzik2wins
AwayBrunner0wins
Guzik leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGuzikBrunnerG − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.025.5+10.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 191 vs 284 / 57271.7%49.7%137 / 191 vs 284 / 572Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.17/Brunner 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.2%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 30 · 21:45M. Guzik331111113M. Brunner239680
WJul 30 · 17:45M. Guzik3961111113M. Brunner28117281
M. Guzik10
WSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113
M. Brunner10
LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113LSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113
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