TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140111
Played Sep 17Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116611811––
Krystian Gudzik
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMarian Brunner to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarian Brunner above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Marian Brunner at 59.4%
72 points played in total.
H2H Marian Brunner 2–0 Krystian Gudzik Krystian Gudzik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gudzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1317 vs Gudzik 1390
Gudzik
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 60% vs Gudzik 20%
Brunner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 40% vs Gudzik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner +3 · Gudzik -1
Brunner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gudzik form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.00 / Gudzik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gudzik)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13140111
Brunner2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Gudzik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 36 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwayGudzik0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBrunner leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBrunnerGudzikB − GBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.530.0+10.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 571 vs 61 / 12049.7%50.8%284 / 571 vs 61 / 120Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikBrunner 2.00/Gudzik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 2 · 04:20M. Brunner45111175113K. Gudzik3775111132
WSep 1 · 23:05M. Brunner361411113K. Gudzik2312740
M. Brunner10
LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113LSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113
K. Gudzik10
LSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682LSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760WSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113LSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113LSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241WSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732WSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970WSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151LSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113
Upcoming Matches
M. Brunner
K. Gudzik
Sep 17 · 18:10K. Gudzik2.00M. Baran1.73—Sep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.83G. Mucha1.83—Sep 17 · 20:30K. Gudzik3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 17 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.73M. Brunner2.00—Sep 17 · 22:55K. Gudzik2.00Z. Nocun1.73—Sep 18 · 24:10K. Gudzik2.65M. Guzik1.39—Sep 18 · 01:25K. Gudzik1.83G. Mucha1.83—Sep 18 · 02:35K. Gudzik2.00M. Baran1.73—
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