TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140277
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117711118––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:42 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Guzik at 66.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 7–1 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Guzik
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1498 vs Mucha 1374
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Mucha 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Mucha 50%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -2 · Mucha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.20 / Mucha 4.33
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Guzik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13140277
Guzik1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 127 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 93 of 105
Mucha4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGuzik7wins
AwayMucha1wins
1 of 8 to a deciderGuzik leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%6 of 6
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik6Mucha2n = 8Guzik took 6 of 8
S2Guzik7Mucha1n = 8Guzik took 7 of 8
S3Guzik8Mucha0n = 8Guzik took 8 of 8
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home675%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGuzikMuchaG − MBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match35.623.5+12.1per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 190 vs 142 / 28271.6%50.4%136 / 190 vs 142 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.20/Mucha 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.7%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik331111113G. Mucha166460
WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik331111113G. Mucha216780
WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik331111113G. Mucha166730
WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik331111113G. Mucha152580
WAug 17 · 22:30M. Guzik351113113G. Mucha2061130
WAug 17 · 15:00M. Guzik4061111123G. Mucha341167101
LAug 2 · 22:35M. Guzik45115111172G. Mucha46131183113
WAug 2 · 15:00M. Guzik331111113G. Mucha206860
M. Guzik10
WSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113
G. Mucha10
WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113WSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153LSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140LSep 15 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.83131116153G. Mucha1.8315714131WSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113WSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460
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