TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141164
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1412711101212101315
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 116 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 54.0%
116 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–2 Grzegorz Mucha Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1417 vs Mucha 1366
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 80% vs Mucha 40%
Baran
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 70% vs Mucha 50%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +2 · Mucha -3
Mucha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.83 / Mucha 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mucha)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13141164
Baran1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mucha1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayMucha2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarann = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran1Mucha3n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
S2Baran2Mucha2n = 4split evenly
S3Baran2Mucha2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBaranMuchaB − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match35.237.0−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 142 vs 142 / 28354.9%50.2%78 / 142 vs 142 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaBaran 1.83/Mucha 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 9 · 23:20M. Baran323136101G. Mucha45111111123
WAug 9 · 17:20M. Baran521091111113G. Mucha4112112972
WAug 3 · 01:00M. Baran351112123G. Mucha29910100
LAug 2 · 18:55M. Baran227870G. Mucha331111113
M. Baran10
LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113WSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972LSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192
G. Mucha10
WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140LSep 15 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.83131116153G. Mucha1.8315714131WSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113WSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
G. Mucha
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.