TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139800
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111169111210911
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 57.4%
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 4–7 Mateusz Baran Michal Machelski has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Machelski beat Baran 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Baran
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1320 vs Baran 1407
Baran
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Baran 80%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Baran 60%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -1 · Baran -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.20 / Baran 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Baran)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13139800
Machelski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Baran1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 43 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayBaran6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderBaran leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski33.3%1 of 3
AwayBaran57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Baran7n = 10Baran took 7 of 10
S2Machelski2Baran8n = 10Baran took 8 of 10
S3Machelski6Baran4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Machelski3Baran4n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
S5Machelski4Baran3n = 7Machelski took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiBaranM − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.345.0−3.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 1136 vs 76 / 14037%54.3%420 / 1136 vs 76 / 140Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranMachelski 2.20/Baran 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski51117139113M. Baran50811111192
LSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski1411030M. Baran341112113
LAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski246990M. Baran331111113
WAug 27 · 02:20M. Machelski56811127183M. Baran501121011162
LAug 26 · 18:20M. Machelski2696110M. Baran351111133
LAug 10 · 01:45M. Machelski4611681652M. Baran514111114113
LAug 9 · 16:15M. Machelski53108111592M. Baran531211613113
LAug 6 · 04:40M. Machelski4111413852M. Baran506111111113
WAug 5 · 22:40M. Machelski49871211113M. Baran46111110862
WAug 2 · 22:10M. Machelski531313115113M. Baran48151191122
M. Machelski10
LSep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.3853100M. Lewczuk1.531111123WSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113
M. Baran10
LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113WSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972LSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113LSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342
Upcoming Matches
M. Machelski
Nothing scheduled
M. Baran
Sep 17 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 17 · 16:35M. Baran—G. Mucha——Sep 17 · 18:10M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 17 · 18:55M. Baran—M. Guzik——Sep 17 · 19:40M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 17 · 21:00M. Baran—G. Mucha——Sep 17 · 22:10M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 17 · 23:45M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 18 · 01:00M. Baran—M. Guzik——Sep 18 · 02:35M. Baran—K. Gudzik——
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