TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139749
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115119116––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 58.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 12–14 Jakub Skorupa Michal Machelski has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skorupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Skorupa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1300 vs Skorupa 1426
Skorupa
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Skorupa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Skorupa 60%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Skorupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.20 / Skorupa 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Skorupa)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139749
Machelski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Skorupa1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 152 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 99 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwaySkorupa6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkorupa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski50%2 of 4
AwaySkorupa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S2Machelski6Skorupa4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Machelski8Skorupa2n = 10Machelski took 8 of 10
S4Machelski4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S5Machelski0Skorupa4n = 4Skorupa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiSkorupaM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.0+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 1133 vs 317 / 65536.9%48.4%418 / 1133 vs 317 / 655Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaMachelski 2.20/Skorupa 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 21:00M. Machelski49101711113J. Skorupa431215791
LAug 30 · 16:35M. Machelski3611411552J. Skorupa46611711113
LAug 27 · 04:40M. Machelski29311781J. Skorupa4111811113
WAug 26 · 22:40M. Machelski43101111113J. Skorupa30127741
LJul 28 · 02:20M. Machelski49711126132J. Skorupa531161011153
WJul 26 · 02:45M. Machelski4615119113J. Skorupa351361151
LJul 25 · 18:25M. Machelski4771212972J. Skorupa5311101011113
LJul 22 · 03:05M. Machelski351071171J. Skorupa4212118113
WJul 21 · 21:05M. Machelski4211911113J. Skorupa27711451
LJun 26 · 01:25M. Machelski46117125112J. Skorupa505111011133
M. Machelski10
WSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342WSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100WSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111LSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113WSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082
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