TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139847
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61151115131311118
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:52 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 104 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 58.2%
104 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 21–17 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Fomin beat Machelski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Machelski
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1300 vs Fomin 1508
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 30% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Fomin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.25 / Fomin 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Fomin)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13139847
Machelski2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Fomin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 275 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it98% 155 of 158
Up 1–0, closes it90% 213 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski3wins
AwayFomin7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski42.9%3 of 7
AwayFomin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski7Fomin3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S2Machelski5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S3Machelski3Fomin7n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S4Machelski2Fomin6n = 8Fomin took 6 of 8
S5Machelski1Fomin3n = 4Fomin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiFominM − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.941.7−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 1133 vs 531 / 90836.9%58.5%418 / 1133 vs 531 / 908Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominMachelski 2.25/Fomin 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski31851171A. Fomin3611113113
LAug 27 · 01:30M. Machelski4214711101A. Fomin48121113123
WAug 26 · 19:30M. Machelski46111152173A. Fomin54891111152
LJul 29 · 22:55M. Machelski2310670A. Fomin341211113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Machelski3411441142A. Fomin48911116113
WJul 12 · 24:00M. Machelski4411513153A. Fomin4491111131
LJul 11 · 16:00M. Machelski328111121A. Fomin4011411143
LJun 29 · 06:00M. Machelski4811119892A. Fomin47591111113
LJun 26 · 02:35M. Machelski46111212922A. Fomin482101411113
WJun 25 · 18:10M. Machelski331111113A. Fomin184950
M. Machelski10
WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961LSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10117139113M. Baran1.67811111192LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113
A. Fomin10
LSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122LSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972WSep 16 · 17:20A. Skupinski3.5011811652A. Fomin1.28811911113WSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113WSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163
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